永不磨灭的番号

A |     　　面对30年期美债收益率突破5.3%、创下19年高位，美国财政部选择干预，长端利率应声而落。但是，几个交易日后，首次干预的效果很快被市场消化，美债收益率快速反弹，美国财政部则再次释放“加码”干预的信号。　　8月24日，美国财政部长贝森特再度确认，将于9月9日正式执行新一轮回购操作。    FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- Lionel Messi is evidently going back to China, after Inter Miami took advantage of not making the Major League Soccer playoffs by signing a deal to play two exhibitions there next month.The team said it would play a pair of friendlies against Chinese Super League teams, first in Qingdao, China against Qingdao Hainiu on Nov. 5 and then against Chengdu Rongcheng in Chengdu, China on Nov. 8. Those two stadiums can both hold between 50,000 and 60,000 fans.Those dates coincide with the first round of the MLS playoffs. Inter Miami was eliminated from playoff contention earlier this month.Inter Miami's announcement of the deal did not specifically mention Messi or any other player, though it would be surprising if Chinese officials agreed to the games without some sort of guarantee that the seven-time Ballon d'Or winner and the team's other best-known standouts — Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba among them — would be making the trip if physically able.“This will be a great opportunity to continue building on our 2023 campaign, in which we achieved our first-ever trophy,” Inter Miami sporting director and chief soccer officer Chris Henderson said in a release distributed by the team. "We will take this as an opportunity to begin our preparations for 2024, as we look to build on last season and find more success moving forward.”If Messi — who led Argentina to the World Cup title last year — plays, it would be at least the eighth time he has traveled to China for exhibitions for club or country since 2005. Ticket for all previous Messi appearances have sold at a wild pace in China, a nation that has a massive soccer following even without much in the way of global success by the men's national team. China's women made the World Cup final in 1999, falling to the U.S. in a penalty-kick shootout to decide the title at the Rose Bowl in California.Messi has played in China as recently as this past June, shortly after he stunned much of the soccer world by announcing that he was signing a 2 1/2-year contract worth around $150 million to come to MLS and play for Inter Miami. He scored barely one minute into a match for Argentina against Australia in Beijing on June 15, and later was surprised by fan — one wearing a Messi jersey — somehow getting onto the field to ask for a hug.Messi also won Olympic gold in China, helping Argentina win the title at the Beijing Games in 2008. He and Inter Miami co-owner David Beckham have enormous followings in Asia, along with several endorsement deals in the region.This is the first international tour for Inter Miami, which is about to end its fourth MLS season. The team won the Leagues Cup this season, doing so shortly after Messi began playing for Inter Miami in July.The team didn't reveal television or ticket information. The lowest-priced seats for Messi's appearance at Beijing in June were listed at $80 and the highest-priced were around $670 at face value; if the price points for that match are similar to what's set on this tour, the two matches could generate well over $20 million in ticket revenue alone.That suggests this trip could be another major financial win for Inter Miami. MLS officials said Messi's jersey has been the league's top seller in 2023 — even though it wasn't on sale until July — and the team has told its season ticket holders that it plans to increase prices dramatically for the 2024 season.“We’re very excited to continue to expand our club's global reach, bringing our team to play in front of incredible fans across the globe," Inter Miami chief business officer Xavier Asensi said in remarks distributed by the club. "This is a special opportunity to share the passion as we reach new audiences and put ourselves on display in new places, and we’re looking forward to beginning this adventure.”Inter Miami finishes its MLS season this week with matches against Charlotte on Wednesday and Saturday. Messi is currently with Argentina's national team for World Cup qualifying and — given that nothing is at stake — it would seem unlikely that he'll appear in either of the final two MLS matches of the season for his club.The team hasn't publicly revealed plans for any other international tours for 2024, but others are expected given Messi's enormous global popularity.___AP soccer: https://apnews.com/hub/soccer。8月19日，贝森特宣布将长债回购规模翻倍。截至发稿，30年期、10年期美债收益率为5.237%、4.71%，其近期最高点分别为5.336%、4.746%。　　美债收益率飙升对应着美债价格下跌。这一轮中长期美债价格快速下跌释放了什么信号？美国财政部的“救市”行动能达成所愿吗？美联储会作何反应？　　“靠嘴”干预？会否动用TGA资金？　　美国债券投资者正时刻关注着贝森特关于债市干预的信息。

B | 　　8月19日，美国财政部宣布，在9月9日至11月4日期间，将单次长期国债回购规模上限从20亿美元至少翻倍至40亿美元。仅仅一天后，贝森特在接受CNBC采访时进一步强化了其“干预主义”立场，称40亿美元并非“硬约束”，必要时上限可继续上调。8月24日，贝森特重申了这一计划，并强调将继续执行常规国债标售。

C | 　　目前，市场正高度关注财政部是否会动用其手头约9500亿美元的财政部一般账户（TGA）资金来支持回购。财政部一般账户（TGA）本质上是联邦政府的支票账户，用于支付政府日常运作费用，例如联邦雇员工资、国防合同以及财政部的利息和本金债务。截至上周三，其余额约为9500亿美元。中金公司表示，从机制上看，财政部回购长债不能无限制消耗TGA；若TGA资金消耗殆尽，则仍需要通过增发短债弥补资金缺口，虽可改变美债期限结构，但对收益率的实质影响或有限。

D | 　　华泰证券分析师易恒指出，距离8月3日财政部上调三季度再融资规模至7390亿美元仅过去16天，此次回购调整显得颇为仓促，缺乏计划性，且截止日设定在2026年中期选举后一天，难免引发市场对其政治动机的猜测。此外，贝森特主导下的美国财政部干预带有较强博弈与投机色彩，常在长债收益率上行时点出手，但实际投入规模有限，主要依靠信号扰动市场；若市场看穿这套模式，财政部公信力将受损。　　长期美债收益率为何飙升　　华尔街知名投资人Stanley Druckenmiller在《华尔街日报》发表署名文章指出，30年期美债收益率冲高是高赤字、通胀持续超标、充分就业环境下市场的客观定价。当前美债市场并未出现拍卖失败、交易失灵等流动性危机，美国财政部动用流动性工具干预市场，偏离了其定位，实质是对利率水平的直接干预。　　换言之，美国财政部的干预并未对症下药，它无法改变长期收益率飙升背后的多重结构性因素：美国经济增长持续高于趋势水平、通胀长期高于政策目标、AI繁荣带来的巨额融资需求，以及中东地缘局势紧张等。　　Druckenmiller认为，流动性工具无法化解财政基本面矛盾，只能延后问题，难以扭转利率走势。

E | 　　据华泰测算，受关税退税、新增军费及大美丽法案财政宽松影响，2026年财政赤字率可能维持在6%左右的高位，政府债务占GDP比例难以下降。　　中金公司认为，扩大长债回购对美债供需格局的直接影响相对有限，更多发挥稳定市场预期的信号作用。财政部无法像美联储一样直接创造准备金，若进一步扩大回购，资金仍需通过融资获得，可能主要通过增发短债来弥补，进而改变美债期限结构，类似于美联储过去的“扭曲操作”。　　贝森特与沃什：“合流”还是“分化”　　除了贝森特，决定美债走向的还有另一位重要人物——美国货币政策主导者美联储主席沃什。

F | 　　当前，两位美国重量级官员各有各的烦恼。如果说贝森特的烦恼是国债收益率太高了，那么沃什的烦恼就是通胀水平太高了。两人均面临各自的信誉风险，谁能帮得了谁？　　中金公司表示，美国财政部的回购能够在一定程度上改善长债供需和市场流动性，但要真正压低长端利率，关键仍在于改善投资者对美国财政和货币政策的预期。

G | 　　东吴证券认为，近期美债长端收益率上行，一方面受到美国财政赤字、长债供给以及AI企业发债等因素影响，另一方面，沃什对美联储通胀框架的调整及政策沟通方式，也加剧了市场对美联储抗通胀信誉的担忧，进一步推高期限溢价。　　东吴证券进一步指出，更关键的是，当前的基本面并不支持压低利率。历史上，QE或“扭曲操作”均用于经济衰退或通缩时期。而当下美国经济过热、通胀高企，人为压低无风险利率等同于实施变相货币宽松，与沃什试图控制的加息前置逻辑背道而驰。　　8月28日，沃什将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表讲话。　　中金公司指出，沃什若继续回避清晰指引，对稳定预期帮助有限。面对两难境地，较好的选择是坚持对控制通胀的承诺、不再说“市场利率高就等于加息”，同时承诺在利率危机时提供流动性支持。　　大公国际分析师则表示，相较简单的鹰鸽信号，市场更关注沃什就美联储与财政部的政策边界、协同规则释放的表态。即便讲话释放鸽派信号，长端美债收益率也只会迎来短暂情绪回调，财政赤字、国债供给以及期限溢价等结构性因素会约束收益率趋势下行，利率实质性回落仍要看财政端能否改善。若7月PCE通胀并未大幅偏离市场预期，本次讲话对美债市场的影响权重将高于单月通胀数据。

H | （文章来源：澎湃新闻）。